With news that RINO DeDe Scozzafava has dropped out of the race in NY-23, and with Republican Bob McDonnell seemingly cruising to victory in the Virginia governor’s race, all eyes are turning to New Jersey.  Republican Christopher Christie is slightly ahead in the polls, with the trend going his way.  A victory for Republicans in deep blue New Jersey would send shock waves through the country that would be felt right up to the doors of the White House.

And New Jersey is winnable.  Independent candidate Chris Daggett appears to be fading, as voters who were considering him begin to get cold feet.  The majority of Daggett’s voters say Christie is their second choice, and he stands to gain three to five percent in the polls just from Daggett’s support.

Enthusiasm for incumbent Governor Jon Corzine remains non-existent, no matter how many times President Barack Obama visits the Garden State on his behalf.  New Jerseyans are not happy with Corzine’s performance as governor, and they know that Obama is not on the ballot.  None but the most die-hard Democrat is coming out to vote for Corzine.  Christie is winning among independents by double-digits.

With victory so close, it’s time for conservatives nationwide to step in and help push Christie over the top. 

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Suffolk University’s Political Research Center released its latest survey in the New Jersey Governor’s race today, showing Governor Jon Corzine holding a commanding 9-point lead over Republican challenger Christopher Christie, 42-33 percent. Independent Chris Daggett received 7 percent in the poll.

The result caused a minor stir on the Internet. A very minor stir, as even a cursory examination of the internals of this poll shows that it is deeply flawed, internally contradictory, and not at all reflective of the state of the race in the Garden State.

All polls produce outliers, and polling outfits occasionally get a bad sample. But a result this bad this late should never have been released, if Suffolk University wanted to maintain any semblance of credibility. The fact that it was released leads one to believe that the purpose of the survey was not to predict the outcome in the governor’s race, but to influence it.

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Republican Christopher Christie has been hammering Governor Jon Corzine on the issue of taxes in the New Jersey governor’s race of late.  But the New York and Philadelphia media which has deigned to cover the race has wanted to talk about mammograms, traffic tickets, and Christie’s weight.  Chritsie has been relentless in driving the message of lower taxes and slashing state spending as medicine to get New Jersey’s worst-in-the-region economy moving again.

There was another recent candidate for governor in the Garden State who rode the message of lower taxes to victory in November:  Jon Corzine.  Back in 2005, Corzine promised property tax relief for New Jersey’s over-burdened citizens.  Things have not exactly worked out according to plan.

With a little help from the Wayback Machine, Jon Corzine’s 2005 tax promises have been recovered.  And his betrayal of New Jersey taxpayers exposed.

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Two new polls in the New Jersey governor’s race show Republican challenger Christopher Christie maintaining his lead over incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D). The Quinnipiac poll shows Christie holding a ten point lead over Corzine, 47-37 percent; while the Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind shows a closer race, 47-42 percent in Christie’s favor.

Both margins are essentially unchanged from previous surveys by the respective polls, but there have been minor shifts in the numbers. In the July Quinnipiac poll, Christie garnered 53 percent of respondents, six points better than his showing in today’s poll. Similarly, Corzine found his support shrinking by four points from the last Quinnipiac survey. In the Fairleigh Dickinson poll, both candidates increased their share of respondents over June’s result.

Christie’s negatives have been driven up by Corzine’s slashing attacks against Christie’s ethics and smears of his service as U.S. Attorney for Newark. For most of the past month, Christie has been beset by attacks on everything from phone calls with the White House, to his personal finances, to a four-year old traffic ticket.  But while Corzine’s relentless attacks have raised doubts about Christie, they have not managed to convince many more voters that Corzine deserves a second term.

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Gov. Jon Corzine’s (D) campaign is launching a new attack on Republican Christopher Christie’s ethics, heralding news that Christie spoke with former White House political strategist Karl Rove about a possible governor’s race while he was the U.S. Attorney for Newark.

Asked about Christie during a July 7 appearance before the committee, Rove said he never spoke with Christie about his investigations or other actions as the state’s top federal prosecutor. They did discuss the possibility Christie might run for governor, Rove testified.

“I talked to him twice in the last couple of years, perhaps one time while I was at the White House and once or twice since I left the White House, but not regarding his duties as U.S. Attorney, but regarding his interest in running for governor, and he asked me questions about who — who were good people that knew about running for Governor that he could talk to,” Rove said in the testimony.

In an act that stinks of political desperation, the Corzine campaign is attempting to use Rove’s testimony as a basis for calling Christie’s entire extremely successful seven-year stint as U.S. Attorney for Newark into question.

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New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie’s campaign got a shot in the arm today when Quinnipiac released the results of its most recent polling in the governor’s race. Christie has expanded his lead to 12 points over incumbent governor Jon Corzine (D). From the poll:

Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine and now holds a 53 - 41 percent lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47 - 38 percent, with 8 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Christie has increased his lead despite a month-long negative ad blitz by Corzine that is seeking to paint Christie as ethically challenged and tied to former president George W. Bush.  The charges are not sticking.  The poll found that only 10% of likely voters say that Corzine’s attacks on Christie’s association with Bush, who appointed him as U.S. Attorney for Newark, are fair.  By contrast, 77% say that Corzine should focus on state issues.

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First of all, I know it looks impossible to even say, so let’s clear up that last name. It’s pronounced An-gee-ef-ski. I know, I know, that means here in Illinois we could possibly go from a Governor Blagojevich to an Andrzejewski. But the difficult last name should stand as the only similarity between the two men, for Adam seems to have some ideas on how Illinois might get out of its fiscal nightmare. I interviewed him not long ago and he had some very interesting thoughts on how to fix Illinois. (adamforillinois.com/)

In fact, Andrzejewski has already made some headway in shining the sunlight of accountability on various sate and local agencies through his self-funded program — self-funded to stay independent, he said — dubbed “For the Good of Illinois.” Andrzejewski has been at the vanguard of encouraging school boards and county governments in Illinois to put their check registries and finances on the Internet for all citizens to see. In fact, his catch phrase is “every dime online in real time.”

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A few of our newly minted spokesmen for all those seemingly ubiquitous new Republican moderates out there are starting to say that if we oppose Sotomayor, we do so at our own risk. By this they mean that if we are seen to oppose a strong Hispanic woman we will be hurting our chances further with Hispanic voters. To this one can only say poppycock. Sotomayor should be opposed and vigorously but not because of anything other than her rather un-judicial judicial philosophy.

No one, not one conservative commentator or politician, cares a whit that Sotomayor is Hispanic. There simply is no expectation of opposing her because she is of Latino heritage. And so, because of this, there should be no reason whatever to shy from criticizing her qualifications and philosophy. Further, to allow moderates on our side or anyone on the left to equate our opposition to a racial objection is illegitimate and should be vociferously denied.

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The Secretary of State has the returns as they come in, now that the polls are closed.

In addition to the budget slate on the ballot we have US House district 32’s primary election to replace Hilda Solis, who was nominated by the President to be Secretary of Labor.

There’s also the general election for State Senate district 26, to replace Mark Ridley-Thomas, a former LA City Councilman who has now gone on to win a seat on the LA County Board of Supervisors.

Open Thread.

8:19PM Pacific Update: I’ll get in one update before bed: early returns looking excellent (as always… sigh). Only SF County is passing 1A. Only 1F is passing, because it’s the only one that isn’t part of the Democrat shell game. Now I just need those results and the Lakers to find a way to win tonight…

From the diaries by Erick

Every day, members of America’s military leave family and home to stand on the front lines to defend our freedom. To their surprise, these heroes must fight another battle: attempting to vote.

Each passing election highlights the difficulties for military personnel to cast ballots. Numerous obstacles prevent them from registering to vote, casting absentee ballots or voting at anywhere near the rate as their civilian counterparts.

Troops navigate a minefield of complexity, mail delays, indifference and errors, dampening their democratic voice and perhaps their democratic spirit.

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South Africa is holding its quinquennial national and provincial elections today.

Of course, I care about this - because that’s a regular travel-and-business spot for me.

But everyone should care at least a bit about this situation, since it will be rather pivotal for us in the years ahead.

Here’s what to watch - and why you should care….

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Election Journal points us to this frightening story in the Detroit Free Press. There are over 200,000 more registered voters in Detroit than the census estimates that there are people over 18.

Detroit election officials confirmed Monday what an analysis of census and population records shows: The city has more registered voters than it has residents over the voting age of 18.

Ultimately, election officials point to federal laws that don’t allow election officials to purge rolls. So what is the Democrats’ — and California Democrat Zoe Lofgren in particular — response? Introduce a bill to forbid purging those rolls. Really:

(2) PROHIBITING REMOVAL OF REGISTERED VOTERS INCLUDED ON COMPUTERIZED LIST FOR FAILURE TO VOTE OR APPEAR TO VOTE- Section 8 of such Act (42 U.S.C. 1973gg-6) is amended–

Why would they do that? Wouldn’t be because of those non-existent people voting, would it?

A friend pointed out a difference between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats want every vote, however it got voted to count. Republicans want every voter to count.

Republican former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads incumbent governor John Corzine (D) by nine percentage points, 42-33, in a new poll released by Fairleigh Dickinson University. The results should boost confidence among NJ GOP voters that Christie can take down the increasingly unpopular Corzine. Fifty-six percent of respondents said that they have a negative opinion of Corzine, a -23 rating, compared to 31% who had a favorable impression of the corruption-fighting Christie, a +19 spread. Still, 58% said that they had not heard enough about Christie to have an opinion, a number that will only go down as the campaign progresses.

Surprisingly, Christie’s Republican primary challenger, former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, also bests Corzine in a head-to-head matchup, 37-36. Lonegan is not as well known as Christie, and trails him in the primary by 43-21%.

The bottom line in these numbers is that New Jersey Republicans have a golden opportunity to take down Corzine in November, if they can avoid a bruising primary fight. Such a victory, coupled with a win in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, could spark a Republican resurgence heading into the 2010 Congressional elections. Both candidates in New Jersey should keep their eyes on the prize – defeating Corzine – and avoid attacks on each other, so as not to play into Corzine’s hands. If they can manage that, New Jersey could become a November bellwether.

New Jersey and Virginia elect governors this year, and Republicans stand a good chance of taking both. In the Garden State, the GOP likely has a very strong challenger in former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, if he makes it through the primary against former Mayor of Bogota (Bergen County), Steve Lonegan. Christie made his name putting corrupt Democratic politicians in jail, so the primary should be little more than a formality and a tune-up for the eventual fall campaign against a very well-funded and powerful Democratic machine in the state. Christie has an excellent chance of unseating Governor John Corzine (D) if he can prove himself competent on issues other than public corruption.

It is on that issue, however, Christie’s strength, that some Democrats are trying to attack him. They would love to paint Christie as one of a kind with their corrupt crowd. Democrats know that for Republicans, hypocrisy is a campaign-killer, even as it seems to be a resume enhancement for them. But their first venture down this line of attack will fall flat, if Christie continues to follow his instincts.

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Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Arkansas: A new Public Policy Polling survey (3/20-22; 600 registered AR voters) shows some surprising vulnerability for so-called moderate Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). Against former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R), she leads only 46-37%. Paired with state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), her advantage is a similar: 48-37%. The Senator’s job approval number is a lackluster 45:40.

California: Confirming previous speculation, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) stated publicly that he will not challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) next year. Boxer now becomes a heavy favorite for a fourth term.

Connecticut: Research 2000, for the ultra-leftwing Daily Kos national blog, released the results of their Connecticut survey (3/23-25; 600 likely CT voters), and it shows ethically challenged Sen. Christopher Dodd in a bit better position than from last week’s Q-Poll (Quinnipiac University; Dodd trailing Simmons 43-42%). Here, Dodd leads former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2) 45-40%, with a job approval rating of 47:40. The Senator has a much bigger lead when paired with another potential GOP candidate, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri: 51-30%. CNBC business news commentator Larry Kudlow ended speculation that he would run for the Senate via public announcement earlier in this week.

Florida: Gov. Charlie Crist (R) may soon take his most definitive step toward running for the state’s open Senate race next year. Insiders claim that he will now form a Senatorial exploratory committee before the state legislature’s scheduled recess on May 1. Democrats will virtually concede the Senate seat to Crist in order to try and win what promises to be a competitive gubernatorial race.

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Key Political Developments

Senate Update

Ohio: A new Quinnipiac University poll shows a wide open US Senate race in the Buckeye State. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) leads former Bush Budget Director Rob Portman 41-33% in the large sample poll (1,299 respondents), conducted from March 10-15. Portman trails Jennifer Brunner (D), the very partisan Ohio Secretary of State, 39-34%. Meanwhile, the same survey shows Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leading former Rep. John Kasich (R-OH-12) by a sizable 20-point margin, 51-31%. The poll is particularly good news for Portman because his statewide name ID is only 32%. Of the people who can identify him, his favorability ratio is a strong 25:7.

New Hampshire: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) announced she will not run for the Senate next year, thus giving fellow ultra-liberal Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-2) a clear shot at the Democratic nomination. No decision as yet regarding whether former Sen. John Sununu (R) will get into the race. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is retiring. Should Sununu not run, former Gov. Steve Merrill (R), whose popularity ratings topped 65% when he left office, has not ruled out a Senatorial attempt.

New York: Democrats are about to tear themselves apart over appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Ten of her former New York congressional colleagues signed a letter to the state Democratic chairman demanding that the party stop promoting Gillibrand without mentioning the other potential candidates. Reps. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY-4), Steve Israel (D-NY-2), and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer (D) are all considering the race. Not surprisingly, McCarthy and Israel were among the ten members who signed the letter.

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