One might look at the latest PPP polling data that shows Roy Blunt down by one point to Robin Carnahan and think “oooh, Roy’s not looking so good”.  But a quick peek beneath the results shows otherwise.

Back in January, when PPP first surveyed Missouri voters about a potential Blunt/Carnahan race, the numbers came out 45/44 Carnahan over Blunt.  Now?  The latest shows Carnahan up 43/42 over Blunt.  Of course this is well within the MOE of 3.6%.  But consider the environment that exists today in Missouri.  The “League of Conservation Voters” has been conducting an extensive ad campaign criticizing Rep. Blunt’s stand against  “cap-and-trade” legislation.  Blunt has made his opposition to cap-and-trade well-known, pointing out the huge utility bill increases that such a bill would foist upon Missourians and the rest of the country.  But despite this effort by the Carnahan-supporting group, Blunt’s numbers have barely budged.

It appears that the negative opinion of Barack Obama’s policies, the Democrat-controlled Congress and the general economic conditions have also impacted the polling data.  According to the PPP numbers, Blunt leads Carnahan 44-32% with independent voters.  As PPP points out, this is a very similar situation to what occurred in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections.  PPP’s numbers also show strong disapproval for Barack Obama’s performance (-9 pts) and a 21-point disapproval gap for PelosiObamaReidCare.

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Watch with some amusement as Missouri Secretary of State (and Senate hopeful) Robin Carnahan (D) refuses to answer two simple questions:

• Does she support the House’s health care rationing bill?

and

• What is her opinion on the Stupak amendment?

(See also: The Conservatives.com)

While Carnahan’s response to the first question might be at least considered a standard attempt at mealy-mouthing, and thus not overly outrageous; I cannot imagine how any progressive watching that could be pleased at her ‘answer’ to the second question. Every credible side in the health care dispute concedes that the Stupak amendment is relevant to the discussion, and people are keeping track of who has what opinion of it. Robin Carnahan’s going to have to choose a side.

Moe Lane

PS: What exactly did the Carnahan family do in Missouri to justify their quasi-hereditary political status in that state? Save St. Louis from a rampaging Mississippi River monster?

*See here and here for the reference.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

The fact that Roy Blunt had raised 200K more than Robin Carnahan in the Senate race was already known - but 24thstate is now reporting that Ed Martin has also raised 40K more than Russ Carnahan for the MO-03 race. Which is interesting, as Martin only declared around the end of July. Guess when they say “Show-Me” in Missouri, they mean it.

But that’s not even the most interesting thing coming from 24thstate.com.  The most interesting thing right now is his evidence that someone in Robin Carnahan’s office is violating Sunshine/election/ethics laws by funneling documents to attack blogs…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Some points of interest, for various campaigns:

• AR-01: Rick Crawford - who is running against Marion Berry, AKA The Guy Who Can’t Remember That He’s Not Supposed to Be Taken Farm Subsidies - has a revamped website.  It’s a definite improvement over the old version, and should allow for more and better networking.  AR-01 is a R+8 district, and long overdue for a Congressman not as ready to ‘forget’ about his income (both agricultural and residential) as Berry is.  Check Rick out.

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Today Rasmussen Reports issued their first Election 2010 survey of Missouri’s U.S. Senate race that will most likely be between Rep. Roy Blunt (MO-7) and Sec’y of State Robin Carnahan (D-we don’t know where she is). The Rasmussen poll shows a dead heat - 46-46 between Blunt and Carnahan. Both of these candidates are well-known names in Missouri, and earlier polls by other polling firms had shown Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one or two-point lead a few months ago.

Rasmussen breaks down the numbers:

Nearly all the numbers in this early survey show an uncommonly close match between two members of well-known Missouri political families. Blunt, for example, leads by 17 points among men, but Carnahan has a 13-point lead among female voters.

Carnahan captures 84% of the state’s Democratic vote, while Blunt nets 85% of the GOP vote. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Blunt by eight points.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Missouri voters have a favorable view of Blunt, with 18% whose opinion of him is very favorable. Thirty-three percent (33%) view him unfavorably, including 15% with a very unfavorable view. Only 10% have no opinion of the Republican hopeful.

Carnahan has 52% favorables and 42% unfavorables. Twenty-three percent (23%) regard her very favorably and 22% very unfavorably. Just six percent (6%) aren’t sure what they think of Carnahan.

The one number that seemed to stand out, as indicated in bold, was the unaffiliated number, which showed an 8-point lead for Blunt.  This may be a “coal mine canary” indicator of the public’s dissatisfaction with the Dems.

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Roy Blunt has worked his way into the top ranks of Republican leadership in Congress. He has been trusted by Republican Presidents for many years with candid advice. He is relied on even now by Republicans in Congress as they struggle to keep the team together in opposition to the siren calls of compromise with the Democrats.

More critically, Congressman Blunt is now seeking to become the next United States Senator from Missouri. As we fight to take back Congress, we need men like Roy Blunt on our side. Winning the open senate race in Missouri is necessary should we want to take back the Senate and, at a minimum, prevent the Democrats from having a filibuster proof Senate.

Today RedState is pleased to endorse Congressman Roy Blunt for the United States Senate.

RedState has an interesting relationship with Congressman Roy Blunt (R-MO). There are many times we find ourselves on opposite sides of issues, generally fiscal and earmarks related. There are many other times we find ourselves standing shoulder to shoulder with Congressman Blunt — supporting our soldiers, defending life, and opposing President Obama’s ridiculous healthcare scheme.

Roy Blunt is a good friend of this site. We have passionate disagreements on issues, but our friendship is unwavering. We can agree to disagree on issues because we know that in the grand scheme of things, we are with each other in the fight for freedom. We hope that as Congressman Blunt speaks with the voters of Missouri, he realizes the importance of ongoing work to reduce the size and influence of the federal bureaucracy. The Senate needs more reformers; Congressman Blunt can only benefit if he decides to be one of them.

In the particular race at hand, the contrast between Congressman Blunt and his opponent, Robin Carnahan, could not be more striking. Congressman Blunt opposes the Democrats’ cap-and-trade plan. Ms. Carnahan supports it. Congressman Blunt opposes the Democrats’ healthcare plans. Ms. Carnahan supports those plans. Conversely, Congressman Blunt supports regulator reforms that will allow people greater access at lower price to private health insurance. Ms. Carnahan opposes that. Congressman Blunt supports a strong military. Ms. Carnahan opposes that. Congressman Blunt supports letting every person decide their destiny. Ms. Carnahan believes the government should play a critical role in how you live your life.

Please join us in supporting our friend Congressman Roy Blunt as the next United States Senator from Missouri. Winning Missouri must be a priority for us in 2010 and with your help Roy Blunt will win.

Is it really helpful for the leader of the Republican National Committee to say “I agree with you. And when stuff gets in the crapper, you gotta clean it out” after the host of the radio show he is on just spent a few minutes bashing the presumptive Republican nominee for the United States Senate in Missouri, Roy Blunt?

The radio host, Vincent David Jericho, wet on a tirade against both Matt and Roy Blunt. According to the News-Leader,

Steele, who was in Springfield for a fundraiser on Friday, tried to interrupt Jericho, but the host pressed on.

“Behave like a man – not like, not like little boys who are running around with their little toy and can’t behave themselves,” Jericho said.

Steele responded: “Look, now don’t, don’t – I mean, I agree with you. And when stuff gets in the crapper, you gotta clean it out.”

Sigh.

My name is Russ Carnahan (D, MO-03), and I’m lost:

(via Dana Loesch. Also note: Ed Martin is running against this guy.)

I was last seen a week or so ago, hiding in a garage after a get-together I threw ended with some people that I invited beating up a guy. I’ve dropped off the face of the earth since then.  No Twitter*, no blogging, nothing from work… I’m just gone.  Now, I’ve had a bit of a sheltered life, and I’m not used to it when things go bad: so I may in a bad place right now.  If you see me, please let Ed Martin (R) know; he thinks that I need to take a break anyway, and he’d like to talk to me about it.

I may be with one or more friends, who are also missing:

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As we might expect, ACORN is now getting into the protest game, unsurprisingly, as supporters of Obamacare.  Today, the local Missouri ACORN held a protest event in the University City Loop, not too far from Claire McCaskill’s office and the now-infamous St. Louis SEIU headquarters.

Unfortunately for them, the turnout was not so great.

Looks like their astroturf needs watering.

H/T to Sharp Elbows for their coverage of this watershed event.

Those were the words of Kenneth Gladney.  These words however were spoken by his lawyer since Gladney was under heavy medication as a result of the beating he took at the hands of SEIU thugs.

If you can’t see the video it is of a speech by St. Louis Tea Party’s Bill Hennessey and the attorney for Kenneth Gladney.

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There is a reason why the United States of America is a democratic republic, and not an aristocratic republic. The first generation of a particular family may be politically able; may, in fact, be very able. The second generation of that family may likewise be politically able. Sometimes - sometimes, and mostly if the family name is Adams - even the third generation is politically able. But it is unwise to bet on that.

Rep. Russ Carnahan (D, MO-03) is of the third generation of a political family. His last name is obviously not Adams - and does it ever show.

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Here’s what a reporter on Fox-2 KTVI in St. Louis says:

Michelle Anselmo: Opposition groups were online telling everybody there would be a show of force coming out here tonight to show their disgust really with the President’s healthcare reform plan.

Then late this afternoon the Democrats issued their own press releases telling anyone who supported this plan to come out.

Got that? Anti-Obamacare citizens made known they would show up to tell Russ Carnahan to oppose Obamacare.

Russ Carnahan and the Democrats then send out an all points bulletin to Democrat groups to show up.

Who does Carnahan get to show up?

The screen shot below is from Michelle Anselmo’s report:

Not only was it the SEIU, but on the ground reports to RedState confirm that the Democrats gave priority seating to pro-Obamacare supporters and had a special entrance for a large contingent of SEIU thugs.

When faced with a vigorous band of constituents who wished to loudly express their discomfort and annoyance with both Russ Carnahan’s specific and general voting records, the Congressman did the proper thing: he engaged with them.  He listened.  He explained why sometimes - to evoke Burke - you have to exercise your own judgement in representing your district, and not knee-jerk defer to constituent opinion.  In short, he was a Representative.

Yes, I’m joking.  What he actually did was lock the doors on them before the speech, and ran out the back like a scared little bunny rabbit.  Or a Democratic legacy politician who doesn’t understand why the grubby little proles are so exercised over things, all of a sudden.

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This one is causing some commentary, behind the scenes: former Blunt chief of staff Ed Martin has started an exploratory committee to run in Carnahan’s district, which includes large parts of the St. Louis area. CQ Politics currently rates the seat as “Safe Democrat:” Cook reports the district as being D+7; and Carnahan is from the third generation of a powerful Missouri political family.

Actually, that last factor may suggest why Martin may think that he has a shot: Carnahan is part of a local aristocracy, and frankly? It’s starting to show.

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…by flipping them off, locking them out, and calling the police on them.

As Gateway Pundit reports, this past Friday a Tea Party protest outside Democrat Senator McCaskill’s offices in St. Louis was received by her staff with obscene gestures and a refusal to hear their concerns. The protesters were voicing their objections to socialized, government-controlled healthcare and the inevitable (and already-proposed) tax increases and related financial irresponsibility being proposed by the Democrats. Apparently the staffers felt “they were being threatened”.

Real threatening-looking crowd, eh?

Um, no. Police? Senator McCaskill, is that how you respond to your constituents’ concerns? By insulting them and chasing them away?

Last night Senator McCaskill twittered: “I moved my office from fed bldg to street front when I got elected to make it more user friendly, approachable.“.

More approachable. Right.

(Update: McCaskill attempts to explain her staff’s behavior.  Not a real apology, you’ll notice: “sorry you were offended” rather than “sorry my staff members were such idiots”.  Moe would have banned her for that pathetic attempt.)

You’d think after the Mark Sanford fiasco, politicians would know not to disappear, but Robin Carnahan has disappeared, just like Carmen Sandiego. Well, the article notes:

Carnahan couldn’t be reached for comment because she was on vacation last week. But her spokesman, Tony Wyche, disputed Blunt’s characterization.

Except that’s not quite the case according to a number of reporters trying to get in touch with Carnahan. Reporters are whispering that Carnahan is gone and her staff does not know how to contact her.

Is she is South America? Well, her husband is Columbian. I’m sure it is innocent, but can the Secretary of State of Missouri, who is also a Senate candidate, really get away with disappearing for over a week without a way for staff to reach her?

And isn’t it odd for a Senate candidate to pull a disappearing act on the 4th of July?

And, contrary to our current ruling party’s (Democrats) operating fiscal paradigm, there are no money trees out there.  If you want a thing, you have to find a way to pay for it.  The trouble is, of course, that if you don’t particularly want a thing you may have to pay for it anyway, particularly when the people who do want it (Democrats) happen to have one of their own as Governor of Missouri.

These three paragraphs come to the heart of the matter, I think.  Bear in mind that Governor Nixon’s (D) overall goal is that there be less power usage, which sounds marvelous until you contemplate the implications of a population that’s increasing faster than power production.  If you don’t want to increase power supply, and you can’t control the population, the only way to manage the situation is to set up conditions where individual expectations of fair-share power are lowered to a level that equals the supply.  We have an adjective to describe that condition.

It’s ‘poor.’

Usually, regulators allow utilities to recoup the cost of building power plants or buying more power to meet customer demand. Recently, the Missouri Public Service Commission began allowing some utilities to pass along to customers the cost of programs that reduce demand for electricity.

For example, the commission last week approved a program in which St. Louis-based AmerenUE can offer credits to businesses that voluntarily shut down or scale back their electricity use during peak demand. AmerenUE will be able to recoup the cost for the program that starts Thursday by increasing the rates it charges business customers.

[snip]

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that energy-saving programs offered by utilities will add about 3 percent to the average electricity rates. But it says customers who participate in the programs could save 10 percent to 20 percent on their energy bills, and even those who don’t participate might save if utilities don’t have to buy more energy or build new power plants.

(Bolding mine)

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The Hill is reporting tonight that it is looking more and more like Sarah Steelman may decide to forego a challenge to MO Rep. Roy Blunt in the primary for Kit Bond’s Senate seat.  Instead she may try to run for Blunt’s current 7th District House seat in Missouri.

Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman appears increasingly less likely to run against Blunt, and she acknowledged Monday that she is looking at a possible campaign for Blunt’s open House seat as an alternative.

Steelman said shortly after Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) retirement announcement in January that she was leaning toward entering the Senate race, and for a while, it was a foregone conclusion.

But after unleashing a string of Blunt criticisms and opening an exploratory committee in April, she has grown quieter and begun evaluating other options.

She was still largely quiet last week when potential Blunt challenger Tom Schweich and the man who had been promoting him, former Sen. John Danforth (R-Mo.), both changed course and announced their support for Blunt.

Though rarely afraid of ruffling feathers in the GOP establishment — including in a pitched gubernatorial primary with former Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R-Mo.) in 2008 — Steelman told The Hill on Monday that she is worried about hurting the GOP.

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During the campaign, President Obama said plans similar to the Waxman-Markey energy tax bill would cause electricity rates to “necessarily skyrocket” and costs will be “passed on to consumers.” Creating new taxes that kill jobs is never a good idea and it’s even worse during a recession. Moreover, a dramatic increase in utility bills would disproportionately hurt the poor, disadvantaged and those who have lost their job.

Throughout this debate, some Democrats have asserted that the cap and trade energy tax scheme will not make much of a difference on the average family’s utility bills. However, a study conducted for the Missouri Joint Municipal Electric Utility Commission estimates Missouri rates could increase as much as 40 percent by 2015 due to these policies.

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Several sources are reporting today that a new name has emerged on the Republican side of the quest to replace Christopher “Kit” Bond in the U.S. Senate.  Thomas Schweich, a law school professor at St. Louis’s Washington University and an attorney with Bryan Cave, is apparently being recruited by former MO Senator John C. Danforth, former Hungary ambassador and Bush cousin Bert Walker, and former Belgium ambassador Sam Fox.

My immediate reaction to this news was “if he’s coming from Danforth, I gotta be concerned.”  While Danforth served as a Republican, he has made it a habit in recent years of stabbing Christian conservatives with pointy sticks, despite his credentials as an Episcopalian priest.  Danforth was at the head of the wave of GOP “moderates” blaming social conservatives for the ills of the GOP.  Sound familiar?  And now he’s promoting a candidate for Senate.  Tell me I shouldn’t be suspicious.

But there’s another, more significant reason to be concerned about Schweich.

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